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Business

Domestic demand fuels the economy in a period of reduced business spending

Durante el cuarto trimestre de 2024, la economía de Estados Unidos presentó una desaceleración en su crecimiento, aumentando a un ritmo anualizado del 2.3%, una bajada en comparación con el 3.1% registrado el trimestre anterior. Este enfriamiento se produjo a pesar de un fuerte gasto de los consumidores, que creció a una tasa del 4.2% en el mismo lapso de tiempo.

El gasto del consumidor se mantiene firme

Consumer Spending Remains Strong

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, remained a significant driver of growth. The 4.2% increase indicates that households continued to purchase goods and services at a healthy pace, contributing positively to the overall economic performance.

Varios factores influyeron en la tasa de crecimiento moderada:

Several elements contributed to the moderated growth rate:

  • Weak Business Investment: There was a notable decline in business spending, particularly in equipment and structures, which restrained overall economic expansion.
  • Widening Trade Deficit: A surge in imports led to a record goods trade deficit, which negatively impacted the gross domestic product (GDP). The increased importation of goods indicates strong domestic demand but also means that more spending is directed toward foreign products, subtracting from GDP growth.

Inflation and Monetary Policy

Inflation remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding food and energy, rising 0.1% in November and 2.8% over the 12 months through November. Elevated inflation pressures have led the Federal Reserve to project fewer interest rate cuts this year, maintaining a cautious approach to monetary policy.

El mercado laboral mostró resistencia, con un aumento de 154,000 empleos en las nóminas no agrícolas en diciembre, tras un incremento de 227,000 en noviembre. La tasa de desempleo se mantuvo constante en 4.2%, lo que indica un entorno laboral estable. Sin embargo, el sector servicios experimentó una desaceleración, ya que el índice de gestores de compras no manufactureras del Instituto de Gestión de Suministros cayó a 52.1 en noviembre desde 56.0 en octubre, lo que sugiere una moderación en las actividades relacionadas con los servicios.

Perspectivas para 2025

Outlook for 2025

Looking ahead, economists anticipate that the U.S. economy will continue to face challenges such as persistent inflation and potential trade disruptions. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions will play a crucial role in navigating these challenges, with a focus on balancing efforts to manage inflation while sustaining economic growth. Consumer spending is expected to remain a key driver, but its sustainability will depend on factors such as wage growth and employment stability.