FAute de n’avoir pas voulu refermer la puerta du « quoi qu’il en coûte » suffisamment tôt, celle-ci a fini par claquer bruyamment. The new budgetary trajectory that the government is obliged to trace in the future, after the destruction of the deficit in 2023, design a path for the least tortueux on the economic plan as on the political plan. A comb ébauchée, la feuille de route que l’exécutif a transmission, le 9 avril, au Haut Conseil des Finances Publiques paraît difficilement sustainable. If the remaining objective is the same, to grow the level of the public deficit to 3% of GDP by 2027, the franchise stages manifest themselves in a course of obstacles that are difficult to overcome.
In the term, faced with an imbalance between dépenses and recettes that devrait désormais is announced at 5.1% in 2024, il s’agit de trouver 10 milliards d’euros d’economies, qui s’ajouteront aux 10 milliards déjà programmés il ya seulement… two weeks. This embalming soudain trahit a situation où le pouvoir navigate à vue, while the financial notation agencies must render their verdict on the soutenabilité de la dette française in quelques jours.
The question posed to the government is how to comment on the order in the accounts in the absence of a majority. This is the end of the elimination strategy that is retained after a succession of couacs au sein de l’exécutif sur l’opportunité d’opter pour un budget collective voted by Parliament. These Faustian notes reinforced the feeling of floating that reigned at the head of the State. A la veille d’elections européennes mal engagées pour la majorité, Emmanuel Macron a fini par trancher, estimant qu’il y avait plus à perdre qu’à gagner à entablar un parliamentary debate susceptible to jeter una lumière crue sur l’impéritie du pouvoir in matters of Public Finances.
Instead, budgetary creativity is a contribution: by default, to cancel déjà votés credits, Bercy requires that some are not dépensées so that they can be recovered at the end of the year. Un tour de passe-passe que en dit long sur l’étroitesse des marges de manœuvre.
paradoxical argument
In this glorified situation, while the respect of our European voices are braqués sur notre incapacité à tenir nos engagements, s’ajoute the threat of a censure from the part of the oppositions, which understand well ne pas laisser passer l’occasion de government sanctioner. Celle-ci pourrait avoir lieu lors de l’examen du prochain projet de Budget, cet automne. The right, which by default to achieve the retirement reform, one of Emmanuel Macron’s rare initiatives to reduce dependencies, also refers to economic virginity.
« Censorship, c’est notre arm anti-impôts », affirms Olivier Marleix, the president of the LR group in the Assembly, who is seeking to prepare a fiscal office to address the deficits. The argument is paradoxical to the extent of the clumsiness, which is susceptible to knowing this motion of censure, and voit au contraire le moyen de broken avec le reus gouvernemental d’aumenter les impôs.
After the arrival of Emmanuel Macron to power, the moment is becoming a reality in the years before the impensé of a president who does not voit him salut que dans la croissance et le plein-emploi. But since neither one nor the other is decreed, the end of the five-year period is shaping up to be a long time waiting to find lasting solutions to the budget equation, in a political and social context that is not ready to go.